The release of the NFL schedule Thursday night will give teams the opportunity to see how their season will lay out.
Every team already knows the opponents they will face, and no team will face a more difficult schedule based on last year’s results than the defending NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles.
Most Difficult NFL Schedules
The Eagles and quarterback Jalen Hurts will face opponents that compiled an overall .566 winning percentage last year, a slightly tougher number than Miami’s .554. Right behind those two teams are the New England Patriots, Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants at .549.
The Eagles will face six teams at home that made the NFL playoffs last year, and they will also face 4 more teams on the road that were postseason participants.
Easiest NFL Schedules
On the other hand, no team should have an easier run in 2023 than the Atlanta Falcons. That team’s opponents had a combined win percentage of .417 last season.
The New Orleans Saints also should have a relatively easy run, as their opponents registered a .427 percentage. The Houston Texans struggled badly in 2022, and they are rewarded with opponents who had a .431 percentage a year ago.
Complete list of strength of schedule rating (based on last year’s results)
1. Philadelphia Eagles: .566
2. Miami Dolphins: .554
T-3. New England Patriots: .549
T-3. Dallas Cowboys: .549
T-3. New York Giants: .549
6. New York Jets: .545
7. Buffalo Bills: .542
8. Washington Commanders: .535
9. Los Angeles Rams: .533
10. Las Vegas Raiders: .524
11. Arizona Cardinals: .519
T-12. Los Angeles Chargers: .517
T-12. Denver Broncos: .517
T-12. Seattle Seahawks: .517
15: San Francisco 49ers: .514
16. Kansas City Chiefs: .512
17. Cincinnati Bengals: .510
T-18. Chicago Bears: .497
T-18. Minnesota Vikings: .497
20. Detroit Lions: .495
21. Baltimore Ravens: .484
22. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: .483
23. Jacksonville Jaguars: .477
24. Green Bay Packers: .476
25. Pittsburgh Steelers: .470
26. Cleveland Browns: .460
27. Carolina Panthers: .453
28. Tennessee Titans: .448
29. Indianapolis Colts: .434
30. Houston Texans: .431
31. New Orleans Saints: .427
32. Atlanta Falcons: .417
Strength of schedule based on projected win totals
However, looking at last year’s records is not the only way to look at the schedule. Instead, observers have ranked schedules based on the win totals each team is projected to earn in the coming season. This is based more on the individual strengths and weaknesses of each team. Evaluations by Sharp Football Analysis look at each team’s personnel, draft and coaching staff.
Hardest schedule, based on projected win totals
Based on the projected win totals, no team has a more difficult schedule than the New England Patriots. According to Sharp, the Patriots, Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, Las Vegas Raiders and Miami Dolphins will have the toughest go of it in the upcoming season.
1. New England Patriots
2. Buffalo Bills
3. Kansas City Chiefs
4. Las Vegas Raiders
5. Miami Dolphins
Easiest schedule, based on projected win totals
The New Orleans should have the easiest go of it based on projected win totals. According to Sharp’s estimate, they have a projected win total of 9.4. The Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Indianapolis Colts and Chicago Bears have the next easiest schedules.
1. New Orleans Saints
2. Atlanta Falcons
3. Carolina Panthers
4. Indianapolis Colts
5. Chicago Bears
Overall schedule strength, based on projected in totals (easiest to hardest)
1. New Orleans Saints
2. Atlanta Falcons
3. Carolina Panthers
4. Indianapolis Colts
5. Chicago Bears
6. Houston Texans
7. Tennessee Titans
8. Detroit Lions
9. Jacksonville Jaguars
10. San Francisco 49ers
11. Pittsburgh Steelers
12. Green Bay Packers
13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
14. Cleveland Browns
15. Cincinnati Bengals
16. Philadelphia Eagles
17. Seattle Seahawks
18. Los Angeles Rams
19. New York Giants
20. Denver Broncos
21. Dallas Cowboys
24. Minnesota Vikings
25. New York Jets
26. Los Angeles Chargers
27. Washington Commanders
28. Miami Dolphins
29. Las Vegas Raiders
31. Buffalo Bills
32. New England Patriots
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