The Atlanta Braves (12-4) visit the San Diego Padres (8-9) on Monday night! First pitch commences at 9:41 p.m. ET. Below we continue our MLB odds series with a Braves-Padres prediction, pick, and how to watch.
Here are the Braves-Padres MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Braves-Padres Odds
Atlanta Braves: -1.5 (+108)
San Diego Padres: +1.5 (-130)
Over: 8.5 (+102)
Under: 8.5 (-124)
How To Watch Braves vs. Padres
TV: MLB Network, Bally Sports
Time: 9:40 p.m. ET/ 6:40 p.m. PT
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Why The Braves Could Cover The Spread
Last Series & Standing: 3-0 @ KC (First in the NL East)
Run Line Record: 7-9 (44%)
Over Record: 9-6-1 (60%)
Atlanta carries a six-game win streak into the first of a three-game series with San Diego. The Braves swept both the Royals and Reds prior to this series and they’ve now won four of their first five series. That being said, the one series they lost was against this very Padres team – against whom they dropped three of four games at home. With that, Atlanta needs to get their pitching right if they want to cover as road favorites tonight. In their prior matchup with San Diego, they allowed a staggering 25 runs in four games. However, they bounced back and allowed just 24 runs in their last six games.
Long-time starter Max Fried (0-0) makes his second start of the season tonight. The southpaw was limited to just 3.1 innings in his opening-day start against the Nationals before exiting with a hamstring injury. After a short stint on the IL, Fried returns tonight in a crucial opening game against the Padres. Fried developed into one of the most consistent starters in the league over the last four years. He put together back-t0-back 14-win seasons in 2021-22 and is coming off arguably the best season of his career. In 30 starts last season, Fried went 14-7 and held a stellar 2.48 ERA. He maintained a solid 8.3 K/9 while throwing a career-high 2.48 ERA. Although Fried allowed nine hits and four runs in six innings against the Padres last season, look for him to rebound tonight as he gets his 2023 season rolling.
While getting their ace back certainly helps their case to cover tonight, they need their offense to show up if they want to cover as road favorites. That starts with first baseman Matt Olson who terrorized the Padres earlier this season. He went 6/14 in four games against them earlier this month – a continuation of his strong start to the 2023 season. Olson holds a .313 average to go along with five homers (fifth) and 17 RBI (third)
Why The Padres Could Cover The Spread
Last Series & Standing: 1-3 vs. MIL (Third in the NL West)
Run Line Record: 8-9 (47%)
Over Record: 8-9 (47%)
The Padres looked to be getting hot after taking three of four against the Braves earlier this month but they have since dropped back-to-back series to the Mets and Brewers. Still, San Diego features arguably the most impressive on-paper roster in the sport and thus has an excellent chance to cover as home underdogs tonight. While their 8-9 record leaves a lot to be desired for a team who had such high preseason expectations, the Padres performed well as underdogs – covering five of six such games. Additionally, the Padres found a ton of success against Atlanta last season as they won four of the seven games between the two contenders.
After a strong Spring Training, lefty Ryan Weathers (1-0) makes his third start of the season for San Diego. Filling in for the injured Joe Musgrove, the 23-year-old looked sharp in his first two starts. He went five innings in both previous starts, allowing just three runs between the two games. The Padres came away with wins in both previous starts as he continues to make a case for a significant role even when Musgrove returns. While his strikeouts have been nonexistent, Weathers allowed just 11 baserunners in his two starts. Although the Braves boast a dangerous offense, Weathers faced similarly tough foes in the Mets and Diamondbacks.
If the Padres want to cover as home underdogs tonight they’re going to need Manny Machado to get back on track. After outputting his best season in San Diego last season, Machado struggled to kick off the 2023 campaign. He holds a measly .254 average thus far in addition to just a single home run and seven RBI. Still, Machado tracks as one of the best hitters in the league after hitting .298 with 32 homers and 102 RBI. As a result, it’s only a matter of time before the 30-year-old figures it out.
Final Braves-Padres Prediction & Pick
Although the Padres took the earlier series between the teams, with Fried on the mound I like the Braves to come through and pick up a critical game-one win.
Final Braves-Padres Prediction & Pick: Atlanta Braves -1.5 (+108)
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