The eye test versus analytics debate can get pretty ugly sometimes. Both camps ardently stick to their views, and it has become increasingly difficult to find common ground. The latest instance centers around the 2022-23 NBA rookie of the Year. One voter immediately put an end to Orlando Magic forward Paolo Banchero’s unanimous bid by instead deeming Utah Jazz center Walker Kessler to be the more worthy candidate.
Andy Larsen of the Salt Lake Tribune explained his reasoning for the pick, which he claimed had nothing to do with him covering the Jazz. It was all about the numbers.
“Basically… the advanced stats all favor Kessler, and I’ve always been an analytically-oriented voter,” Larsen Tweeted. “I think I would have made this vote even if I covered another team.”
Basically… the advanced stats all favor Kessler, and I’ve always been an analytically-oriented voter. I think I would have made this vote even if I covered another team.
Here’s where the rookies rank in EPM, and here’s what I wrote in explaining my vote. pic.twitter.com/bmYd0RQEwI
— Andy Larsen (@andyblarsen) April 14, 2023
The graphic he posted shows how Kesssler was the superior rookie in the advanced metrics, notably blowing Banchero away in Estimated Plus-Minus (+2.1 to -0.9). Essentially, Larsen is arguing that Kessler, with his 2.3 blocks per game and a win share of 7.1, elevated his team while on the floor whereas the Magic were statistically better with Banchero on the bench.
Of course, it is a little more complicated than that. Banchero was forced to shoulder a heavy offensive load on an inferior team. The result was a 42.7 field goal percentage and 29.8 percent from 3-point range. Volume and and production- 20 points and 6.9 rebounds per game define his case for the award. However, he certainly looked the part of a future cornerstone throughout the season. And that is an intangible that will garner much consideration in this process.
Larsen’s argument did not convince other voters, as evidenced by NBACentral. The Kessler vote not only prevents Banchero from joining an exclusive group of perfect ROY ballots, but it also flooded the beat writer’s mentions on Twitter. He will be defending his vote for a long time.
But he seems perfectly fine with that. Perhaps, he is but the first to barrel through the wall, with more writers looking to his analytics-driven approach for Rookie of the Year in the coming years.
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