Two Italian powerhouses lock horns in the UCL! It’s time to check our Champions League odds series, starring our Milan-Napoli prediction, pick, and guide on how to watch.
It has been a rocky season for the Rossoneri. AC Milan has just picked up one win in its last six matches, which was a 4-0 demolition against today’s visitors. The Red and Black scored 1-0 in the first leg of the knockout stage against Tottenham and endured a goalless draw in the second match.
The Neapolitans remain on top of Italian top-flight football, which makes them a potential winner of Serie A. After being down four goals to nothing against the hosts in their opening match in April, Napoli bounced back with a 1-2 win in their travel to Lecce.
Here are the Milan-Napoli soccer odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
Champions League Odds: Milan-Napoli Odds
AC Milan: +175
SSC Napoli: +175
Over 2.5 Goals: +134
Under 2.5 Goals: -164
How to Watch Milan vs. Napoli
TV: TUDN USA, TUDNxtra, ViX
Stream: Paramount+, TUDN App, TUDN.com, ViX+
Time: 3 PM ET / 12 PM PT
*Watch soccer LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why Milan Can Beat Napoli
Seven-time Champions League-winning AC Milan eked past Tottenham in the first knockout round after going 3-1-2 in group play. AC Milan qualified as the second-placer in Group E along with Chelsea, while RB Salzburg and GNK Dinamo Zagreb were the third- and fourth-placers.
AC Milan is in fourth place in the league table at the moment and has not been at their best this season. The Rossoneri were held to a 0-0 stalemate by Empoli in their previous game and will need to take it up a notch this week. AC Milan has shown flashes of brilliance this season but will need to work on their consistency this season.
Despite a downgrade in their offensive production, the Rossoneri have been superb defensively of late, posting clean sheets in each of their last four Champions League matches and both of their past two Serie A contests – including a 4-0 victory on April 2 against Napoli. Stefano Pioli’s squad has made four clean sheets and averages 18.2 tackles, 7.2 interceptions, and 12.5 clearances in eight UCL games. In addition, they have also scored 13 goals with eight coming from assists.
Portuguese forward Rafael Leao, who leads AC Milan with 10 goals in league play, recorded a brace in their encounter with Napoli. The 23-year-old Leao has netted just one goal in the Champions League thus far but shares the team lead with a pair of assists. French striker Olivier Giroud has scored a club-high four goals and two assists in the UCL, while Belgian winger Alexis Saelemaekers has converted twice in only four appearances. Spanish forward Brahim Diaz, who has registered five goals and four assists in Serie A play, produced the lone tally in Milan’s Round-of-16 matchup against Tottenham.
Milan will likely return the entire starting XI that trounced Napoli a week and a half ago and will be missing only Pierre Kaluku and Zlatan Ibrahimovic for the match. Milan will hope that continuity can end a two-match run of draws at home. Il Diavolo is also hoping to win against Napoli in their fifth head-to-head match in San Siro, where they last won on home turf at the Coppa Italia quarterfinals in 2019.
Why Napoli Can Beat Milan
Napoli, who owns a 16-point advantage atop the Serie A table, posted a 5-0-1 record during the group stage before scoring five goals on aggregate against Eintracht Frankfurt in the Round of 16. Napoli reached the Round of 16 last time in the 2019-2020 season but they fell to FC Barcelona. However, Gli Azzurri boasts of a Europa League title in the 1988-1989 campaign.
Spalleti’s Napoli side has won 24 of 29 Serie A matches this season and has scored 25 goals so far in the Champions League, the most of any team in the competition. I Ciucciarelli has also won 16 of 19 away matches in all competitions with just two defeats, and have won eight straight on the road. They have also lost just once at the San Siro to Milan in their last nine meetings, and have won three straight.
However, they are expected to be without 24-year-old Nigerian forward Victor Osimhen, who is Serie A’s top scorer this season with 21 goals. The Nigerian Nightmare is one of four players on the team with four goals in the Champions League but is dealing with a thigh injury. Back-up striker Giovanni Simeone is also doubtful to make an appearance in this match as he deals with a bicep injury. To make matters worse, their third striker is not fully healthy, as Giacomo Raspadori is in a fitness race for the match.
Luckily for manager Luciano Spalletti, Napoli has plenty of goal-scoring alternatives as 10 other members of the squad have found the back of the net in Champions League play thus far. Midfielder Piotr Zielinski and forward Giacomo Raspadori also have converted four times for the Blues, with the former tallying in the team’s last UCL match – a 3-0 victory over Eintracht Frankfurt on March 15. Napoli also received production from Khvicha Kvaratskhelia in his first season with the club after he spent the previous four in the Russian Premier League. The 22-year-old Georgian winger, who has netted 12 goals and leads Serie A with 10 assists, has recorded two goals and is tied for second in the UCL with four assists.
Final Milan-Napoli Prediction & Pick
Despite losing Osimhen in the first leg, Napoli is still a formidable team to beat with 16 different players scoring at least one goal in the Serie A. Milan may have gained an upper hand against the natives of Naples but they have been mediocre in the UCL. Back the visitors to get the win in this high-scoring affair.
Final Milan-Napoli Prediction & Pick: Napoli (+175), Over 2.5 goals (+134)
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