Two teams both sitting in second place in their respective divisions’ face-off, as the New York Yankees visit the Cleveland Guardians. It’s time to continue our MLB odds series with a Yankees-Guardians prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
Anthony Volpe continues to struggle in the batter’s box, but he still has the support of his teammates as he looks to turn things around in Cleveland. Still, the Yankees took two of three games in their third straight series, beating the Orioles on Sunday 5-3. They were powered by two Aaron Judge home runs in the effort. The Guardians come off a win over Seattle. Down two in the ninth, they tied the game. Then scored two in the bottom of the 11th to tie it again. Down one in the bottom of the 12th, they score two more for the 7-6 win in 12 innings. Can they ride the high of that win to a victory for the Yankees?
Here are the Yankees-Guardians MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Yankees-Guardians Odds
New York Yankees: +1.5 (-166)
Cleveland Guardians: -1.5 (+138)
Over: 7.5 (-112)
Under: 7.5 (-108)
How To Watch Yankees vs. Guardians
Time: 6:10 PM ET/ 3:10 PM PT
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Why The Yankees Could Cover The Spread
The Yankees’ power surge early in the year continues, as Aaron Judge had the 28th multi-homerun game of his career. The Yankees have the fifth most home runs in baseball this year with thirteen, averaging over one per game. The problem for the Yankees is they are not getting a ton of run production beyond that. On the season they are tied for 13th with 37 RBIs. While Volpe’s struggles are part of that, as he is yet to drive in a run, the Yankees are not hitting with runners in scoring position. The Yankees are hitting just .247 with runners in scoring position, tied for 14th in the majors.
While the Yankees on offense has been an all-or-nothing proposition, the pitching has been solid. they are tied for third with a 2.79 era, giving up just 22 earned runs in 71 innings this season. They are fifth in hits against, allowing just 59 hits so far this season, leading to a 1.14 WHIP which is good for fourth. Most of the starting pitching has been good, with Cole and Brito each only giving up one earned run in two starts. Cortes has given up just three runs in his two starts as well. Clarke Schmidt and Domingo German were not as stellar though.
German will get the start in the evening game against the Guardians. In his first start of the season, he gave up two home runs and four earned runs in just 4.2 innings of work. The result was a 7.71 ERA and a loss to start the year. On the positive, German did strike out eight batters in the game and walked none. If he can keep the ball in better locations, and avoid giving up the big hits, he will be fine. All four men to reach base scored on German, which is not normal overall. His WHIP was under 1.00, and his ERA should soon follow if he can limit the big mistakes.
Why The Guardians Could Cover The Spread
As long as Travis Kelce isn’t pitching, the Guardians have a shot in this one. The Guardians took game three of their series with the Mariners with a 7-6 comes back to win in 12 innings. That was their seventh game against the Mariners already this year, as they have gone 4-3 against them. While the Yankees have scored their runs via power, the Guardians are doing it by moving runners over. This year they are tied for last in MLB with just five home runs on the season. Only Josh Naylor has more than one home run on their roster.
They are tied with the Yankees at 13th in baseball with 37 RBIs and are second in baseball with 13 stolen bases. Leading the charge there is Myles Straw, who has stolen six bases on the year, while Jose Ramirez has snagged three. The combination of Straw and Ramirez, combined with Andres Gimenez, is also getting on base. All four players have an on-base percentage of over .400 this year so far. Giminez leads the team with 14 hits and a batting average of .350 on the season.
On the hill for the Guardians will be Shane Bieber, who will be getting his third start of the year. In his first two starts, he is yet to record a decision but has only given up three runs in his two starts, pitching 12 innings. He also only walked one batter in those 12 innings of work, with a WHIP under 1.00. While Bieber is yet to pick up his first win of the year, it is not on him there. If he pitches like he has this year, he will be in line for his first win of the year.
Final Yankees-Guardians Prediction & Pick
This is a game of two teams who have scored the same amount of runs with two contrasting styles. The difference in this game will come down to Cleveland’s pitching. Bieber is great at keeping the ball in the yard while striking out guys. That is a big detriment for the Yankees. The Yankees need to find a way to get into the bullpen. Of the eight home runs that Guardians pitchers have given up on the year, five have come from the bullpen. If Bieber can pitch into the seventh inning though, the Guardians will get the win. He does that, the Indians steal another base, and they find a way to manufacture more runs.
Final Yankees-Guardians Prediction & Pick: Guardians -1.5 (+138)
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