The World Baseball Classic is over, and opening day is less than a week away. Check out our MLB odds series as we take a look at an MLB futures bet with a Mike Trout prediction and pick on over/under on home runs!
The Los Angeles Angels have Mike Trout locked up, and for good reason. In his 12-year career as an Angel, Trout has a .303 batting average, 350 home runs, 896 RBI, and an on-base percentage of .415. Because of those numbers, Trout earned himself a rookie of the year award, three MVPs, ten All-Star selections, and nine silver sluggers. He is one of the most feared hitters in the league, and he has the capability to hit the ball out of the yard in any at-bat.
Here are the 2023 MLB odds courtesy of FanDuel
MLB Odds: Mike Trout Home Runs Over/Under
Over: 35.5 (-113)
Under: 35.5 (-113)
Why Mike Trout Can Hit the Over
Mike Trout will be playing 81 games in his home ballpark. In his career, Trout has hit 177 home runs in Angel Stadium. Last season, Trout played 57 games at home and hit 21 home runs. That is one home run every 2.7 games. If he can produce like that, he will not have a problem hitting over 35 home runs on the season. The Angels play in a more hitter-friendly stadium, as well. Trout just needs to get the ball in the air.
Trout will have to play his division opponents the most during the season. The Seattle Mariners, Houston Astros, Oakland Athletics, and Texas Rangers will all host Trout for six or seven games during the season. Of those Globe Life is the park that was most hitter-friendly in 2022. With Globe Life being so young, Trout only has a limited sample size. Nonetheless, in his career at Globe Life, Trout has five home runs in 19 games. He has 33 home runs in 89 games at Seattle, 20 home runs in 89 games at Oakland, and he is the worst against the Astros with 13 home runs in 67 games. Overall, Trout has 71 home runs in 264 games against division opponents on the road. A home run every 3.71 games would definitely help him hit at least 36 on the year.
Last year, Trout played just 119 games and hit 40 home runs. If he can play at least 125 home runs, he will hit 36 home runs.
Why Mike Trout Can Hit the Under
The biggest concern surrounding Trout is injury. He played only 119 games last season and only 36 games in 2021. There is always the concern that Trout will miss significant time. When missing that kind of time, it is hard to hit over 30 home runs, let alone 36.
Another concern is his strikeout rate. Mike Trout had a strikeout rate of 28.1 percent in 2021 and 27.9 percent in 2022. He has not been above 25 percent since 2014 before that. You can not hit home runs if you do not make contact. Pitchers are only getting better, so Trout will really have to lock in his at-bats this season.
Final Mike Trout Over/Under Home Runs Prediction
Hitting 36 home runs is not an easy feat to accomplish. Trout has done it five times in his career. Mike Trout may only need 120 games to hit the over. If he plays anything over that amount of games, 36 home runs is not out of the realm of possibility. Expect Trout to have a big year if he stays healthy.
Final Mike Trout Over/Under Home Runs Prediction: Over 35.5 (-113)
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